Persistence of Right-Wing Ideology in France, from the Dreyfus Affair to Front National

This study investigates the claim that historical persistence of political ideology is a determinant of electoral outcomes. We study the context of France, and more specifically the relationship between the anti-Dreyfusard camp in 1898 and the electoral fortunes of Front National. We demonstrate that there is no statistically significant relationship between the share of votes for anti-Dreyfusard candidates in the legislative elections of 1898 during the peak of the Dreyfus Affair, and the share of votes for FN or its presidential candidate in the legislative and presidential elections since 1986, controlling for the variables widely mentioned in the literature as having contributed to the rise of the populist far-right in the 21st century. These findings show that the historical persistence of right-wing ideology was not a determinant of FN’s electoral success, and that contemporary determinants such as unemployment or immigration explain a larger variation in the electoral support for FN more significantly.